Brexit is sort of a screaming baby. However the EU is not listening


There is not any doubt international audiences have an interest within the course of. It’s unprecedented, in any case. Diplomats from throughout Europe — and elsewhere — try to determine what Brexit will imply, however largely by way of what sort of UK will come out of Brexit fairly than what sort of EU.

This a lot can be clear within the media protection of Brexit within the EU. Research by the Reuters Institute confirmed that almost 60% of Brexit protection has introduced it as a UK-only drawback fairly than one thing with massive implications for different member states or the EU extra extensively. And this determine rises to just about 70% when Irish media is excluded.
That is partly as a result of the financial dangers from Brexit for many EU member states are seen as negligible and definitely manageable. Academic work suggests about 12% of the UK economic system is in danger from Brexit, whereas the EU common is extra like 2.5%.

Therefore the calculation on the EU aspect that the worst-case end result from the talks just isn’t “no deal,” however any settlement that might undermine the EU single market. The highest precedence is preserving the advantages of membership — a fragile stability of rights and obligations that the EU is loath to disrupt for the UK’s sake.

Communicate to European Fee officers in Brussels and the phrase “existential threats” isn’t removed from their lips. Brexit, nonetheless, just isn’t on this class.

The agenda for the final European Council assembly in June gave us an concept of what comes first: migration; safety and protection; financial reforms; the digital agenda; the subsequent EU finances.

Fairly the listing, and it would not even embody a number of the different points dealing with the EU, from structural reforms to the EU itself — and the eurozone specifically — to challenges posed to the rule of regulation by the likes of Poland and Hungary.

Brexit overwhelmingly impacts only one member state — now on the way in which out — and because of this is a little bit of a distinct segment concern.

This has been one of many UK’s issues in dealing with EU relations all through its membership. Quite than in search of EU-wide options to the bloc’s issues, the main target has been on wanting EU-wide options to UK issues.

The renegotiation that former British Prime Minister David Cameron tried previous to the referendum was a working example. He wished adjustments on migration guidelines for EU residents whereas different member states’ concern was overwhelmingly non-EU migration, to which the UK was largely immune, given its geography and non-membership of the Schengen space.

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Consideration within the EU will definitely pivot to Brexit because the negotiations come to a head this autumn, or winter, or subsequent spring. Nobody is sort of positive when. And whereas it’s removed from the primary precedence for many member states, there is no doubt all of them need to safe a deal.

For the jap member states, specifically, they need to guarantee relations with the UK stay on good phrases to safeguard the UK’s sizable contribution to protection and safety on the continent.

When the deal is completed, nonetheless, Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit negotiator, will transfer on. So will his group.

Consideration will flip to the European Parliament elections this summer season and to the fee’s presidency after that. There might be a brand new political time period in each establishments, and a want to reset the agenda and press on with resolving precedence points that may strengthen political, financial and diplomatic relations internally.

In the meantime, the UK will nonetheless be holding the screaming baby.

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